Understanding Probabilistic Forecasting

We provide three values for each forecast: lower bound, expected value, and upper bound. These represent the range of likely outcomes based on historical volatility and model confidence.

Confidence Intervals

A 70% confidence interval means we expect the actual price to fall within the range 70% of the time. Higher confidence intervals are wider, lower are narrower but riskier.

Risk Management Best Practices

• Never risk more than 1-2% of your portfolio on a single trade
• Use stop-losses on every position
• Diversify across uncorrelated positions
• Set maximum drawdown limits and stick to them

Important Disclaimers

All forecasts are probabilistic, not guarantees. Models can fail. Markets are unpredictable. Past performance doesn't indicate future results. Trade responsibly and never invest money you can't afford to lose.